Welcome to Ponders. This is a monthly newsletter where I reflect on the shifts in technology, entrepreneurship, and policy—connecting the dots between trends and what they mean for business and opportunity. Ponders is about looking at what’s happening, pausing to reflect, and finding an optimistic perspective amidst the noise.
In this first edition, I explore three big assertions for 2025.
The limits of chat as the interface for AI
AI will undoubtedly continue to improve in 2025—more powerful models, lower costs, and endless headlines. But this year will also reveal the limits of the chat interface as a dominant paradigm for interaction with generative AI.
The chat interface gave GPT its big break. It humanised AI. It gave tools like ChatGPT a mystical, almost conscious quality, making them approachable. This interface drove the first wave of excitement and adoption. Nearly two years later, we’re seeing that the chat UI has its boundaries.
- The novelty is wearing thin. While generative models like GPT, Claude, and R1 continue to improve, chat interfaces are becoming commoditised. Copilots in tools like Microsoft Office and Notion are increasingly seen as gimmicks rather than game-changers. From hallucinating fake facts to generating awkward emails, the limits are becoming obvious.
- New paradigms are emerging. Companies like Cursor and TLDraw are embedding AI deeply into their product workflows, moving beyond chat toward interfaces that feel more like tools and less like conversations. These examples hint at a future where AI becomes invisible—integrated into products to assist without announcing itself.
Implications for businesses:
For startups, this is an opportunity to experiment with new AI interfaces that go beyond chat. For established businesses, AI remains a useful tool for efficiency gains—a “copilot” to automate tasks. The real value lies in developing an intuitive understanding of generative AI and identifying where it can meaningfully integrate into your workflows. Like learning the fundamentals of code or math, understanding AI is becoming a basic competency.
The rise of legacy commerce
E-commerce, once a booming growth market, is settling into a new reality. It’s no longer a frontier but a commodity. Comparing prices and purchasing products online is easier than ever, and the “experience” of most webshops is indistinguishable.
This commoditisation marks the decline of traditional webshops as the default shopping experience.
- Marketplaces dominate. Platforms like Amazon offer unmatched scale, logistics, and trust. Social media platforms like Instagram and YouTube, paired with seamless payment options like Apple Pay, are becoming the new go-to for direct purchases. Why navigate a website, enter your address, and verify trustworthiness when marketplaces and social channels make it effortless?
- Webshops will face an identity crisis. For many, the value proposition is gone. They can’t compete on price, logistics, or ease of use.
Opportunities in e-commerce:
- Go boutique. Like the independent shops in city centers, digital boutiques with curated, niche selections and unique branding will remain relevant. Offer storytelling, delightful unboxing experiences, or personalised interactions that marketplaces can’t replicate.
- Go adaptable. Invest in omni-channel strategies. Be present on every marketplace and social channel. Create economies of scale for yourself, particularly in purchasing and logistics.
- Offer what marketplaces can’t. Whether it’s expertise, a memorable customer experience, or exclusive products, focus on what differentiates you.
A pivot for Europe?
Europe’s approach to technology has long been defined by regulation. The EU positioned itself as the global leader in tech oversight, believing that its market size would force companies to comply. But in recent years, this assumption has been tested. Major players in Big Tech have started to deprioritize Europe, opting to leave the region behind on outdated software versions rather than adapt.
There are signs that 2025 could mark a shift.
- The regulatory stance is under scrutiny. Reports like Mario Draghi’s damning assessment of European competitiveness, combined with signals like Zuckerberg’s pivot away from traditional content moderation, suggest the EU is rethinking its approach.
- A new vision for European tech. I’m hopeful that Europe will move away from finger-wagging skepticism toward a more constructive role in global technology. While regulation will always play a role, Europe has an opportunity to inspire rather than constrain. What might this look like? A tech stack built from the ground up, an abundance of renewable power, processor manufacturing, data centres and open-source research as the foundation for a thriving ecosystem of software and startups. What’s next for Europe? Europe doesn’t need to fuel innovation directly; companies will always lead that charge. But it can create an environment that encourages growth and optimism—a shift from cautious regulation to ambitious vision.
Closing thoughts
Thanks for reading the first edition of Ponders. This newsletter is a space to step back, connect dots, and explore ideas without rushing to conclusions. If you enjoyed this, I hope you’ll stick around for future editions as we make sense of the ever-changing landscape of business and technology together.
Stijn